以休闲体育理念为导向的大学体育课程改革与探索——以河北工程大学为例

概述了我国普通高校大学体育课程的发展现状，休闲体育健身理念引入大学体育课程的必要性和必然性。对休闲体育的健身理念进行了整理，探讨了这一新的健身理念引入大学体育课程的有效途径，对休闲体育健身理念引入大学体育课程的结果进行了预测。     

白寿彝先生的民俗学实践与理论

白寿彝的民俗学研究表现在两个方面，一是收集整理地方文化中的民俗资料，二是进行相关的民俗现象研究。前者主要体现在对《开封歌谣集》的收集整理上，作为民国时期民俗学研究领军人物顾颉刚先生的学生，白寿彝通过编辑这部歌谣集，来反映诸多社会问题，表达对下层民众的关注，追求唤起民智的目标。后者先后体现在若干单篇论文中，其新中国成立以前论文主要是对封建迷信的歌谣观的梳理，特点是多取材于正史；其新中国成立以后论文主旨在于辨析民俗学中的传说思想，特点是取材于当代人的研究成果和充分利用传世文献，同时批评相关无学理意义的论断。这两方面的民俗学研究体现出白寿彝在民俗学理论方面的深厚修养，以及民俗学与历史学密切结合、关注下层民众、适应时代发展需要的高度自觉，至今具有一定的示范和借鉴价值。     

Why do newcomers vote for a newcomer? Support for an immigrant party

This article studies the voters of DENK, the first immigrant party to gain seats in a national parliament. It builds further on the existing literature on how immigrants and people from immigrant descent vote in Western European countries. From the literature we derive seven expectations about the kind of voters that are likely to vote for an immigrant party in terms of their political cynicism, attitudes towards economic, globalisation and moral issues. We find that DENK voters are younger Muslims, who have conservative views on moral matters, cynical attitudes towards politics, right-wing views on economic matters and progressive views on issues that pertain to the globalisation dimension, such as immigration, integration and Islam and in particular discrimination. This article uses VAA data to construct a matched sample that in terms of key variables is representative for voters with and without a migration background.     

基于多目标加权灰靶决策模型的节能服务公司选择研究

用能方对节能服务公司（Energy Service Company，ESCO）的选择关系到合同能源管理（Energy Performance Contracting，EPC）能否顺利实施。从用能方的角度，采用灰色系统理论中的多目标加权灰靶决策模型，对存在多决策目标的ESCO选择问题进行研究。通过层次分析法确定ESCO的11个决策目标的决策权数，根据综合效果测度值的比较，最终实现最优对策的选择。本文为用能方的ESCO选择问题提供了一种新的思路。     

习近平新时代观的理论生成探讨

理顺习近平关于“中国特色社会主义进入新时代”的逻辑理路，有助于系统论证“新时代”的科学性和理论性。从方法论上看，习近平新时代观是应用马克思主义立场观点和方法得出的正确结论。从理论归因看，中国社会主要矛盾的转化作为习近平新时代观生成的主要标志，源于马克思主义关于矛盾运动的基本理论。从理论定位看，习近平新时代观展现的是中国发展的特殊阶段，内含着中国对自身发展的时代定位与目标趋向，渗透着中国与世界在共同发展中的新阶段、新高度、新未来，是对中国发展方向的顶层设计。     

No experience required: Violent crime and anticipated,vicarious, and experienced racial discrimination

There is a growing body of evidence linking racial discrimination and juvenile crime, and a number of theories explain this relationship. In this study, we draw on one popular approach, Agnew's general strain theory, and extend prior research by moving from a focus on experienced discrimination to consider two other forms, anticipated and vicarious discrimination. Using data on black, white, and Hispanic youth, from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN), we find that experienced, anticipated, and to a lesser extent, vicarious discrimination, significantly predict violent crime independent of a set of neighborhood, parental, and individual level controls, including prior violent offending. Additional analyses on the specific contexts of discrimination reveal that violence is associated with the anticipation of police discrimination. The effects tend to be larger for African American than Hispanic youth, but the differences are not statistically significant. These findings support the thesis that, like other strains, discrimination may not have to be experienced directly to influence offending.     

基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法

本文首先回顾了模糊信息下前景理论研究的现状，发现犹豫模糊语言这一决策中常见的信息表达形式在前景理论框架中的研究被忽略，同时犹豫模糊环境下的前景决策方法具有一定的应用背景；基于此，本文考虑到决策者在实际决策过程中惯用的信息表达以及面对收益和损失时不同的风险态度，试图在犹豫模糊语言环境下构造新的前景理论决策框架，建立基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法，并给出具体的决策步骤；最后通过算例分析展示了该方法的实际应用过程，并与犹豫模糊语言环境下的期望效用决策结果进行对比，说明了该方法更符合实际决策情景。     

The triggers of local and distant search: Relative magnitude and persistence in explaining acquisition relatedness

Research on problemistic search has assumed negative attainment discrepancy to be the trigger of both local and distant search. Extending this research, we present and compare two additional triggers: (1) relative attainment discrepancy, which reflects how much a firm's attainment discrepancy deviates from its past negative attainment discrepancies; and (2) persistent attainment discrepancy, which reflects how often the firm experiences below-aspirations performance. Our triggers for distant search model a behavioral explanation for the timing and relatedness of acquisitions. We find support for baseline arguments of problemistic search whereby firms increase both industry- and skill-related acquisitions when they perform below aspirations. When they persistently perform below aspirations, however, this likelihood is reduced and firms engage in acquisitions that are more unrelated, thereby providing support for the notion of expanding search boundaries from local to distant search. Of the two triggers of distant search proposed, relative attainment discrepancy does not induce firms to expand search boundaries. Our results indicate that persistent attainment discrepancy is a key construct to consider when studying the expansion of search boundaries.     

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run,Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark

Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide preparedness information of this kind, in large part because of concern about scaring the public. In this survey experiment, 3,003 U.K. and Danish participants were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: no information, a leaflet intervention, and a film intervention to examine the impact of “Run, Hide, Tell” advice on perceptions about terrorism, the security services, and intended responses to a hypothetical terrorist firearms attack. Results demonstrate important benefits of pre‐event communication in relation to enhancing trust, encouraging protective health behaviors, and discouraging potentially dangerous actions. However, these findings also suggest that future communications should address perceived response costs and target specific problem behaviors. Cross‐national similarities in response suggest this advice is suitable for adaptation in other countries.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.